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How to Pick & Trade the Next Profitable Altcoin: An Insight into What Goes Through my Mind

Abstracted from my blog post. Read the Full Post at: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/02/how-to-pick-trade-next-profitable-altcoin-bitcoin-daytrading.html. And follow me for my latest Bitcoin/Altcoin trading advice on Twitter @onemanatatime (https://twitter.com/onemanatatime).
Introduction
Congratulations on owning some Bitcoins and being a part of this Global Revolution! If you don't already own one, buy one easily from an exchange like Bitstamp.net, Coinbase.com, or from someone near you at Localbitcoins.com. Once you own Bitcoins, you can easily trade them for any available Alternative Cryptocurrency from an altcoin exchange like Cryptsy. I like to use Cryptsy because they have so many available coins, and I also find them to be quite reliable.
So you've been seeing tons of people making money trading Altcoins, while you've been losing tons of Bitcoins buying high and selling low? Whether you're simply frustrated with your "bad luck", or just want to learn more & make more Bitcoins daytrading, I'm here to help! So here's an easy-to-understand guide to picking and trading Bitcoin and Altcoins profitably, and of course, more essential daytrading tips to help us all become profitable cryptocurrency traders.
I know you're all eager to make money, but keep in mind that nothing comes for free and I can only help you so much. Just because you've made 5 good trades doesn't make you a profitable trader, and neither does making 5 bad trades necessarily mean you're a lousy trader. Anyone can flip a coin and see 'heads' 5 times in a row. What we want to look for is consistency, and to do that you'll have to start forming Your Own trading strategy. Before I go on, keep these following points in mind when building up your personal Trading Strategy:
How to Find new Altcoins?
So the first thing is to actually find new altcoins and to read up more about what it has to offer. To begin with, I always browse through the Alternative Currency announcements page on Bitcointalk to see what's popular. All new coins are definitely posted here so you shouldn't miss anything, and since threads with the newest post always appear on top, you usually don't have to look further than 2 pages. Things to look out for include the added value a coin brings (as I'll explain more in the next section), as well as the popularity and virality of the altcoin (i.e. high number of pages in a short time).
Another place to look at is Cryptocointalk where you can find a long list of altcoins available, sorted according to new coins or by algorithm. This list is not completely updated, but is organized much better if you want to find out more about a particular coin.
Secondly, you also want to cross-check your information about these coins on social media sources such as Reddit and Twitter. Start off on...
Read more on my blog at: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/02/how-to-pick-trade-next-profitable-altcoin-bitcoin-daytrading.html
Other topics covered in this post include:
What to Look Out For?
With so many alternatives out there, we really need to be picky when choosing the next altcoin because you don't want to spread yourself too thinly. Firstly, clones of existing ideas/coins are mostly not worth holding for anything more than the short-term. In this sense, there's a few different kinds of coins with their respective leaders in each category, each with their own pros & cons:...
Where to Buy?
When/What's a Good Price to Buy/Sell?
For new altcoins, and especially clones, all you'll need is to find a good price to buy, since there's no charts for you to do any TA yet. I found a pretty useful formula for calculating a fair price, and have found it to be pretty accurate. Use it, let me know what you think about it, and how we can improve it to apply to different coin types etc. by Tweeting me or leaving a comment below.
Here's the Secret Formula to calculate a Fair Price for new altcoins: (Maximum BTC Supply ÷ Maximum Altcoin Supply) ÷ 5000to10000. #crystalball
How to Trade?
Obviously, the most important rule in trading is to "buy low sell high". Unfortunately, that's usually harder to execute than it sounds because of panic and greed. Haven't you learn enough from bubbles? Whatever goes up must come down. Markets will always look for a correction after a big spike. Don't chase the bubble! EVERY parabolic curve/rise is a bubble, and a chance for you to sell your altcoins for a profit. Just wait for it and always set sell positions ready to eat up those buys.
https://twitter.com/onemanatatime/status/432542011410104321
Trading Tips
#0: Don't join Pump & Dumps, period. For someone to make money, someone else has to lose. Don't be the one caught with the short end of the stick.
#1: Always trade with a plan. Before entering a trade, plan not only your entry but also your exit. Don't fall into the trap of panic buying/selling. Once you get over that, everything will start to come together.
#2: Discipline. Be patient and wait for good setups. Plenty of opportunity everyday, don't spread too thin. On a side note, I can't wait for a margin platform for altcoins to be built. If you're building one, hit me up and let see how we can work together (I'm a Business Development and Online Marketing Major).
#3: Money management. Don't spend more than 5-10% of your entire BTC portfolio on a single Altcoin, unless you're damn sure it's gonna be profitable in the mid-long term.
#4: Understand human psychology. Here's a good 5 part series to get you started: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEcZQdCEiKE
Most Common Pitfalls
1) Placing too much importance on:
2) Overtrading. I'll let the guy whom I learnt all my Bitcoin trading fundamentals from speak about this: Bitcoin Trading Webinar - How To Make Money Trading Bitcoin (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ-xROFn0zg). Follow him on Twitter @ChrisDunnTV (https://twitter.com/ChrisDunnTV). Long video, but worth it especially for beginners.
3) Not having a plan beforehand. I can't emphasize this enough. Many people jump into buying an altcoin without thinking about their exit plan. What is your target, when you do sell and take profit, when do you sell and cut losses, or do you have more funds/positions ready to buy more if it continues to dip? Are you holding this for the short term or long term? These are all important questions to ask yourself before making a trade. If you don't have a sound and comfortable strategy before entering trades, more likely than not, you're going to end up losing Bitcoins over the (not so) long run.
4) Trying to predict a bottom/top. Nobody can predict exactly where the price is going next, only a better and more informed guess. I personally think this is the toughest problem to tackle, because when greed takes over, you always think "I could have made so much more if only I sold higher or bought lower".
5) Chasing the bubble. What goes up must come down. https://twitter.com/onemanatatime/statuses/432546827196305408
6) Getting emotionally attached to a particular altcoin. I have to admit this is still a problem for me, and I'm still holding onto bags of WDC, ZET, EAC, MSC, that are currently unprofitable. I bought them earlier on, and didn't take profits from the bubbles. But most important thing is that we learn from our mistakes, and that's why I now like to sell some positions to get into a position to "freeroll".
7) Using Technical Analysis as the sole determinant for making trades. Every indicator is useless - by itself. The market is not stagnant, and prices are affected by everything we can, and cannot think of. Don't be bound by one system of analysis; use every single piece of information you can find, and objectively analyze the markets with a bird's eye view.
My Cryptocurrency Trading Strategy
Firstly, I must emphasize that I'm VERY Bullish on Bitcoin for the Long Term. I've invested every single FIAT dollar I have into Cryptocurrencies since November 2013, and I literally have to start selling Bitcoins 2 months later to pay my rent (or wait for a Bitcoin ATM to appear here). Because of this, I spend a ton of time & effort researching Bitcoin and Altcoins to constantly look for ways to grow my number of Bitcoins. I also have a high risk propensity and so not all my trades will be comfortable for you. My point basically is that nobody's situation is exactly the same, so keep in mind that you'll have to build your own strategy to suit your personal needs, risk preference, available resources, and environment...
My Current Altcoin Watchlist
Long Term:
Mid Term:
Others (Not so impressive but still watching):
Cryptocoinchart.info recently launched a new Social Trading feature; Investment Club. Pretty cool. Check it out: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/investment_club. Don't forget to stop by periodically and bookmark my Cryptocoinchart Investment Club profile (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/investment_club/trade12) for updates on which coins I'm eyeing/buying.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How do you feel about XYZ coin?
First of all, there are over 100 altcoins out there, so don't expect me to know about every coin. If it's an exactly clone of Bitcoin, Litecoin, or anything already available, chances are, it's not worth either of our time.
Secondly, read my tweets and do your own research (lazy = poor). If its worth mentioning, I probably did mention it. If you can't find it on my timeline because its too cluttered, again, do a Twitter search for the Altcoin and find out what the World has to say about it.
Thirdly, there's 100s of altcoins out there for you to choose from. Don't spread yourself too thin and buy into every possible bottom. Leave the shitcoins to die, and stick to altcoins with a stronger fundamentals.
2. If I'm holding a bag of XYZ coin, should I just wait or sell for a loss now?
Rule #1 of the game: Buy Low Sell High. But obviously easier said than done.
If you think the coin isn't going make it to the mid-term, and want to liquidate them, you have two options. Sell now and take the loss; that's the hardest thing to do, but also what every good traders knows he needs to do. Or if you think the coin has potential, buy more at where you think is a low, so your average buy price drops, and you can liquidate some/all as soon as it bounces back up. Think Martingale (doubling) strategy.
P.S. This post took 5 months of hard work and research, and one full work day (with overtime) to write. Feel free to donate some coins my way or send some altcoins to my Cryptsy Trade Key: 9c1e289981a685bf0b8a4e48bc00b35eb1380afa.
BTC: 16ka98tnhs9fAjWEXRmEWVrPfTEwmr9orV LTC: LW4qr8aSfgTwGuU6uvEjnhNKRyJJR9iUbR
Read the full post on: http://alunacrypto.blogspot.nl/2014/02/how-to-pick-trade-next-profitable-altcoin-bitcoin-daytrading.html
P.P.S. I recently came across an idea of a Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund; form a network/team of crypto traders to synergistically work together and achieve profitable returns. Different teams mining, selling altcoins, buying altcoins, looking for potential entry positions, trading bitcoin etc. If you'd like to discuss the idea, feel free to email me at alvinlee133(at)gmail.com or hit me up on twitter @onemanatatime.
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